Earlier this month, my wife Thelma and I were at our house in Wales when Storm Darragh hit. The Met Office issued a rare Red Warning for our area — a measure reserved for life-threatening situations.
Suddenly, our phones emitted an ear-piercing alert, akin to an air raid siren. We jumped out of our skin!
The message was clear: batten down the hatches and stay indoors — it’s dangerous outside.
It was the first time the Met Office had ever used these alerts, and some of our neighbours, who were initially sceptical, later admitted they were shocked by the storm’s intensity.
Businesses felt the impact too: Christmas fairs were cancelled, railways ground to a halt, and the losses mounted.
This storm is just one example of the growing unpredictability in our world. From extreme weather to geopolitical upheavals, technological advances, and economic stagnation in major economies, volatility is becoming the norm.
As we approach 2025, uncertainty is everywhere.
President-Elect Trump’s talk of heavy tariffs has already unsettled markets; whether he follows through or not, companies are scrambling to assess the potential impact. Meanwhile, economic stagnation in Germany and France, rapid industry transformations (like those in the automotive sector), ongoing wars, and weak global leadership add to the uncertainty.
Why should you, as a business owner, care?
Large companies understand the importance of preparing for external risks. They dedicate time and resources to geopolitical and economic intelligence, and use forward-looking annual forecasts to guide their plans for the next year.
Smaller companies, on the other hand, often adopt a more inward-looking approach, focusing solely on internal challenges.
This can be a costly mistake!
Your business doesn’t exist in isolation. Customers’ finances, preferences, and behaviours are shaped by global events. Suppliers, even local ones, may be affected by foreign economic conditions, changing exchange rates, or knock-on effects further down their supply chains.
This year, to protect your own company, act like the corporates – and take external risk seriously.
Over the Christmas break, take time to strengthen your business’s resilience. Here’s how:
- Create a risk register. Identify the external risks that could disrupt your business — anything from adverse weather to tariffs, supply chain issues, or shrinking customer budgets.
- Plan mitigations. Work out practical steps to reduce these risks and protect your business from unexpected shocks.
- Incorporate external trends into your 2025 planning. Use the break to think strategically about how global events might affect your business in the coming year.
In early 2025, I’ll share more advice on planning effectively for the year ahead. Watch out for those emails.
In the meantime, if you’d like help building resilience and preparing for what’s to come, let’s talk.
Strategic planning is a core part of our financial management service. In fact, much of our service is geared around helping you see better what’s coming around the corner and using that information to give yourself an advantage.
When you are well-planned ahead, you put yourself in a better position to navigate risks, seize opportunities, and allocate resources effectively, even in uncertain conditions. And you’ll be more likely to survive shocks, maximise profitability and grow faster – which is what we’re all about.
Simply reply to this email or call us on 01279 647 447 to get started.
Here’s to a strong and resilient 2025!
Yours,
Garry Mumford
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